A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
